The Brazilian Sphinx

I know it is not easy to understand what is going on these days in Brazil, especially for non-Brazilians. However, the fact is that unlike the Sphinx who would devour those who could not solve its riddle, Brazil is much easier to “crack the code”.

This may be an anticlimax but I will give the conclusion of this article right away: Brazil is a great place to invest and grow with a relatively stable and resilient economy. As counter intuitive, as this may sound I will try to make my point covering just three aspects of this large and complex country.

Firstly, I feel obliged to cover the political situation. Yes, we impeached a president less than a year ago and yes, we are discussing the impeachment of the current one. It may sound as a gross confusion but the reality is a country with republican institutions working perfectly under unusual harsh times, not to mention a war of misinformation. There is a clear clash of forces among the executive, judiciary and legislative with the checks and balances strained but holding on. Consider this, only in a truly vibrant democracy a supreme court of eleven ministers, mostly appointed by the president impeached and her predecessor, would follow the strict ritual defined in the constitution. That is exactly what happened in Brazil. The president was ousted according to the law and if the current one also leaves, it will be according to the constitution.

All of this is actually very positive in the medium and long run. It means that unlike other places this country will no longer accept corruption. It will strengthen the legal framework to do business because criminals trying to capture the government to sell shortcuts know that the price can be high.

Moreover, government is not paralyzed as one might think. São Paulo city has an ambitious program to privatize and concede public infrastructure that will have enormous impact in efficiency and ease of doing business. Their goal is to raise 3 billion dollars over the next 4 years allowing private companies to manage a large part of the city infrastructure.

Secondly, we have to focus on the economic impact of a convoluted political scenario. It is serious of course. These are no ordinary times. The recession is the most obvious aspect with the highest unemployment rate in decades. Nevertheless, this is a nation with 205 million people eager to consume and a passion for new products and services. Just ask Google and Facebook about where are the early adopters of their products. The cosmetics industry is also a good example of resilience. Brazil is among the top five markets and people may be changing brands but still consuming the same volume.

It is not unlikely to find some companies complaining about the market: “We´re just growing 14% this year”. Tough…

Finally it worth mentioning a thriving private sector building the growth of tomorrow. Right now, many companies are transforming the way people buy, sell and interact. There is a startup fever with top-notch fin techs, agri techs and health techs attracting investment and brilliant entrepreneurs. Some of the largest companies have their incubators and accelerators to find and support these ventures. Google, Microsoft, Itaú, Bradesco are only a few actively involved with the startup ecosystem.

It is also impressive that the state of São Paulo alone – public and private enterprises – invest in R&D little less than the United Kingdom and more than Canada and Spain as a percentage of the GDP.

Yes, it has been an eventful period for Brazil lately but what remained unchanged is a never-ending vocation to grow and overcome the inevitable obstacles that will appear. The road to prosperity is made of creativity, hard work and, why not, some sense of humor. Brazilians are very good at that.

Jorge Dib is managing director at ROI Latam and a member of the investment committee at Verus Group